The Last Federal Surface Transportation Reauthorization?

Congress is debating what will likely be a 2027 surface transportation reauthorization bill. I believe it will end up being the last such bill. That’s a pretty ambitious claim, so bear with me as I explain.

If Congress follows its usual pattern with surface transportation reauthorizations, this will likely be a five-year bill, covering calendar years 2027 through 2031. Depending on whose forecast you believe, the Social Security trust fund will fall to zero in the 2031-32 time frame. Once that happens, Social Security can pay out each year only the amount collected that year in personal and corporate contributions. That would mean a benefit cut estimated at 22%, based solely on ongoing annual SS contributions.

When it comes to highways versus Social Security, which would Congress be more likely to choose? I’m confident that Congress will choose Social Security when faced with that trade-off.

One of the lessons I learned earning engineering degrees at MIT is the inevitability of trade-offs. And just as in engineering, public policy almost always requires trade-offs. Though Congress sometimes acts as if cost is not a consideration when they debate legislation, the reality is that it does. Serious thinkers now anticipate a major federal government funding crisis in the early 2030s. In August the Washington Post editorial board published a special report headlined, “When America’s Budget Will Break, Disastrously.” It is focused on the early 2030s.

While fixing Social Security will be difficult, fixing funding for highways and transit is far more do-able. The first prerequisite for planning the transition is to consider the alternative. Social Security is inherently a federal government problem. Highways and transit are not; they are either primarily a state problem (highways) or a metro area problem (transit). State governments own nearly all our highways, and metro area governments own just about all transit systems. When the federal government becomes unable to continue funding highways and transit, the responsibility for saving them lies with their owners.